Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 052044
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
344 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A WELL ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
FINALLY BEGIN IMPACTING THE CWA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
EXCELLENT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY TONIGHT...HAVE DOWN GRADED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNEDAY WITH CAPE
VALUES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 800 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
HALF INCH TO ONE INCH SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS A LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISENTROPIC DOWN-GLIDE
WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY DRYING OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S...IN WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...TO THE UPPER 60S...IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE GFS AND ECMWF 12Z SOLUTIONS STILL AGREE RATHER WELL WITH THE
TIMING/TRACK OF THE NEXT LARGE UPPER CIRCULATION PROGGED TO LIFT
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
THERMAL PROGS ON THESE TWO MODELS SUGGESTS THAT P-TYPE SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID THROUGH THIS EVENT. 0.5KM WIND PROGS AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGESTS IT SHOULD BE WINDY...FOR SURE...OVER
THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SEEN IN TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD
BE RUNNING GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR /POSSIBLY
IFR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY/ CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER REALLY START TO SHOW UP NOTABLY
AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS.
RAIN CHANCES ABOUND WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN


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