Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 021533 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1033 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY THIS MORNING...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
REPORTING UPPER 60S...AND A FEW ALREADY IN THE LOW 70S. UPPED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE
INHERITED MAX TEMP FORECAST SHOULD HOLD PRETTY WELL. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE RED FLAG WARNING THIS MORNING...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WINDS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER. MODELS DO SEEM TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH POPS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TODAY...SO DID SLOW THE TIMING JUST A
LITTLE BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VERY WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WARM TEMPS ALOFT...DRY AIR AND GOOD
MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR THROUGH THE 80S. MOST AREAS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY AND FIRE WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST MIN RH VALUES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. ALTHOUGH...WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO
BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...BUT FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH OR GREATER FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. HAVE
THEREFORE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST SD. LEFT THE SOUTHWEST CWA OUT AT THIS TIME AS IT
APPEARS WIND SPEEDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS DOWN THAT WAY...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
AREA AND POSSIBLY UPGRADE LATER TODAY IF SPEEDS BEGIN TO PICK UP.
DID NOT INCLUDE THE MN COUNTIES AS IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS OUT THAT
WAY WILL ALSO BE LIGHTER. ALSO CONSIDERED ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN SUPPORT OF RED FLAG ISSUANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE FIRE WEATHER...WILL ALSO BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON. HI RES MODELS STILL SHOWING
SCT ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THEN ADVANCING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MODELS
SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL SD DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ABOUT 35 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. STRONG HEATING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN STORM FORMATION AND GIVEN
SOUNDINGS AND OVERALL DRYNESS BENEATH THE CLOUD LAYER...STRONG
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. CURRENT DAY ONE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
HIGHLIGHTS MARGINAL SEVERE OVER THE AREA. HI RES MODELS REALLY
BACK OFF ON ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET AND HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE
EAST LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A WEAK TO MODEST LOW LEVEL JET THAT
DEVELOPS OUT EAST LATE...BUT NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH IT.

COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS MOVE IN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. SFC HIGH BEGINS BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR LOWS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA. PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SFC
HIGH AND DRY AIR STILL AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. ANY PRECIP
CHANCES MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO WESTERN SD WITHIN BROAD
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THERE IS A DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...A BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE SE PORTION OF THE US. A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE PLAIN STATES WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS. EXCELLENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
SURGE NORTHWARD...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT PER THE
NAM/ECMWF. THE GFS/GEM ARE SLOWER AND BRINGS PCPN INTO THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTED WELL IN SUPERBLEND. THIS
CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING WIDESPREAD PCPN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE INTEGRATED WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED AND PWATS EXCEEDS TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY
BY FRIDAY AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PLAN FOR GOOD VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 00Z SUNDAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ268-
     269-271>273.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN






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