Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 301547 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1047 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO
INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY
COVER OVER CENTRAL WHERE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FIRE WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE GOOD MIXING IS EXPECTED...A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
ABOUT THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ITS EFFECTS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IF ANYTHING THE FORECAST MAY BE ON THE WARM
SIDE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...AND MIN RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES FOR MOST OF
THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION SEEMS TO BE THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE RH
VALUES ARENT EXPECTED TO DROP AS QUICK. THEREFORE...A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH. WIND SPEEDS AND MIXING WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT
WARM AIR ADVECTION ITSELF SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND 70S...NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. PROBABLY WONT
MEET THE WIND CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG TUESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH NO MOISTURE IN SIGHT...MAY ONCE AGAIN BE
LOOKING AT VERY HIGH OR EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
LATER ON IN THE LONG TERM. THEY ALL AGREE THAT IT SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSING OFF TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD CAA IN BEHIND IT ACROSS OUR REGION. THE MODELS THEN SHOW
MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. WITH THE LOWER THICKNESSES...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES MIXING OUT TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP SOME AS THICKNESSES
RISE ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS AND EC BOTH SHOW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INLAND WITH RIDGING
BUILDING EAST INTO OUR REGION INTO SUNDAY. THE EC HAD A STRONGER
TROUGH AND WAS OFF THE WEST COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS...THE
EC GUIDANCE WAS ON THE COOLER SIDE AS COMPARED TO THE GFS FOR OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE GFS GUIDANCE HAD
64 DEGREES AT ABR FOR THE HIGH WHILE THE EC HAD 48 DEGREES. WENT
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY AS THE MIXING
LAYER DEEPENS. EXPECT WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267>272.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




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