Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 151126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. AFTER 18Z...THE STRONGEST HALF KM WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH
OF THIS CWA WITH WINDS POSSIBLE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KTS BY 21Z.
WITH WINDS POSSIBLY SUBSIDING PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING COULD EASE
FIRE WEATHER TODAY. INCREASING DEW POINTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD
ALSO IMPROVE THE FIRE DANGER TODAY. VARIOUS HI-RES SUGGEST THE MID
40 DEW POINTS IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THIS
CWA AROUND 21Z. WHILE RH VALUES AND WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO RED
FLAG CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CWA...WILL ONLY ISSUE FOR THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE CWA. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ARE BEST ON THURSDAY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS IS WHEN MODELS SHOW A CLOSED LOW AT H5 OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH PCPN POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS I90. ACCORDING TO THE NAM...AREAS NORTH OF
I90 COULD SEE AFTERNOON CU DEVELOP WITH A STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WHEN THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS. MODELS
AGREE WITH PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW JUST BARELY
MAKING IT TO THE SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREADING
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BECOMES JOINED BETWEEN THAT LOW AND A LOW FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE AREA AND REMAINING DOMINANT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING ISSUES THEN DEVELOP WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING IN...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER AND STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THIS TIME PERIOD DRY.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE
60S ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE 50S BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD SUBFREEZING LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT /4 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





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