Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 302327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

WATCHING SEVERAL WEAK SHOWERS WEST RIVER ALONG THE TROF
AXIS...WHILE STILL MORE RETURNS EXIST TO THE WEST IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS AND
LIGHT QPF AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AM STILL CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW ROGUE WIND GUSTS FROM
ANY CELLS THAT MOVE THROUGH DUE TO THE ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES PEAK BETWEEN
+12 AND +15C...SO HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN WILL TOP OUT ABOVE 70.
SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN +16
AND +22C...OR 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. COULD EASILY
SEE MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE...PROFILES SUGGEST SOME HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER THE CWA WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN AND LOOKS TO BRING MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN WIND UP SOUTH OF THE REGION AND TRACK
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS BRINGS
THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EITHER WAY...BOTH MODELS PAINT OUT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS...HAPPENING RIGHT NOW ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THEN
LATER TONIGHT AFTER 03Z ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MARCHING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
TURN ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FROPA.
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ269-271>273.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN






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