Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 012046
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN WILL INCREASE
BACK INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267>272.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ267>273.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





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