Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 230550 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING...AND WILL
STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO BRING COLD
TEMPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS
WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE JAMES
VALLEY COULD ONCE AGAIN SNEAK DOWN INTO THE TEENS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL...IT APPEARS THE LOWEST RH/STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT
COINCIDE AS EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWEST RH BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS RH WILL STAY JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. HI RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MAKING IT
ACROSS THE STATE...IN ADDITION TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY NEW LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED
PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT. WILL LET PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS
FRIDAY NIGHT IS TRENDING DRIER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS QUITE MERIDIONAL WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER TROF PASSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD. PROFILES
SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT VERY LITTLE LIFT SO WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY FORECAST TO START. WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM PASSES MORE OR LESS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK TROF IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY. THUS...TRENDED POPS LOWER IN LINE
WITH SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAIN ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROF/RIDGE...WHICH COULD PUT US IN A
MILDER WESTERLY FLOW...OR A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY...AS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...DORN








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