Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 190550 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RADAR STILL SHOWING SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHWARD WITH ECHOES ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. RADAR
WAS ALSO ESTIMATING ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO FOUR
TENTHS OF AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
WEATHER AND POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SEE BELOW FOR UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAIN IS FINALLY STARTING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THE FEED OF
MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE MILLER AREA...THOUGH TO THE WEST AND
NORTH COVERAGE IS MUCH MORE SPOTTY THANKS TO DRY AIR STILL IN
PLACE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PULL PRECIPITATION OUT OF FSD CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A NARROW AXIS OF ISENTROPIC FORCING LIFTS
THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY INTO THE COTEAU. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS
ALSO DEPICTED TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OUT OF NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY AM. WHILE THE POST FRONTAL AIMRASS IS MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER TROF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SHALLOW CONVECTION/SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WE WILL ALSO SEE STRONG MIXED DOWN WINDS AND A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES AGAIN ON MONDAY. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE
ALSO VERY STRONG AGAIN FOR MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ECMWF REMAINS THE WETTER
MODEL WHILE THE GFS HAS TAKEN THE PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC
TO HEART AND KEEPS THE ENTIRE TIME LINE DRY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...RIGHT AROUND
CLIMO NORMS. BY THU/THU NIGHT ON THE ECMWF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE CWA AT THE SFC. THE
ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG A LLJ THU
NIGHT...AND SUPERBLEND KEEPS SOME LOW CHANCES IN FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. LOWERED THE SUGGESTED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE
MOISTURE FEED IS NOT FAVORABLE...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE LIKELY
STORMS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO THE GFS IS
HOLDING IN THE SFC HIGH AND STAVING OFF ANY RETURN FLOW UNTIL
SATURDAY SO MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEVERELY LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS CAA KICKS
IN AND THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS AT ALL LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALSO...EXPECT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CEILINGS TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE CAA ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH A LITTLE INSTABILITY BUILDING UP...EXPECT SOME
MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ENDING SUNDAY EVENING.
THESE MAY AFFECT THE TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN






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