Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 250544 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING. STRATUS TO THE EAST IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE
WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...A LOW FREEZING
LEVEL COULD RESULT IN SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MOST
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 14 WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING PCPN TONIGHT.
A STORM MOTION AROUND 10 KNOTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 6Z...SOME HI-RES
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

BEYOND TONIGHT...PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING OVER
MINNESOTA WILL PRODUCE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. RIGHT
NOW...INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS DISAGREE WITH BOTH THE STRENGTH
AND THE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

WARMER AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS. CIGS MAY BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE







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