Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
AXUS73 KABR 020418 CCA
DGTABR
MNC011-155-SDC013-017-021-025-029-031-037-039-041-045-049-051-057-
059-065-069-075-085-089-091-107-109-115-117-119-129-311200-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
654 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 /554 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSENING ACROSS THE REGION...

SYNOPSIS...

DRYNESS HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION DATING BACK TO FALL OF
2014...WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH APRIL.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING AND WORSENING OVER THE AREA
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS AS LARGER RAIN-PRODUCING SPRING WEATHER
SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN LARGELY NON-EXISTENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...INCLUDING SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOW COVER MUCH OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH EARLY AGRICULTURAL AND
RANGELAND IMPACTS BEING REPORTED.

THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR HAS CLASSIFIED A PORTION OF
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/...INCLUDING THE COUNTIES
OF SULLY...HUGHES...HYDE...HAND...BUFFALO...LYMAN...EASTERN STANLEY
AND EASTERN JONES....EXTREME SOUTHERN FAULK AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
POTTER....AND SOUTHWEST SPINK. BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAVE ALSO BEEN INCLUDED IN D2 DROUGHT.

MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CORSON COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
NUMEROUS COUNTIES HAVE ENACTED BURN BANS.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES SHOW DEFICITS GENERALLY FROM 3
INCHES TO AS MUCH AS 4.50 INCHES FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THIS INCLUDES THE AREA DESIGNATED AS SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT. ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE D0 AND D1 DROUGHT CONDITIONS
EXIST...DEFICITS ARE GENERALLY 0.75 INCHES TO AROUND 2.50 INCHES.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST USDA NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS
SERVICE /NASS/ REPORT FOR SOUTH DAKOTA FOR THE WEEK ENDING APRIL
26TH...69 PERCENT OF TOPSOIL MOISTURE IS RATED AS SHORT OR VERY
SHORT WITH 31 PERCENT ADEQUATE. SUBSOIL MOISTURE SUPPLIES ARE
RATED 67 PERCENT SHORT OR VERY SHORT.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
REPORTS OF WINTER KILL OF THE WINTER WHEAT CROP ARE SHOWING UP IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF PIERRE.
CROP INSURANCE REPORTS OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS HAVE INDICATED
FIELDS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF SOUTH DAKOTA ARE TOTAL LOSSES. THE
LATEST USDA NASS REPORT SHOWED 33 PERCENT OF WINTER WHEAT WAS
RATED POOR TO VERY POOR. EMERGENCE OF SPRING WHEAT WAS AT 10
PERCENT WHICH IS BEHIND THE AVERAGE OF 20 PERCENT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. IRRIGATORS HAVE BEEN NOTED RUNNING ALREADY IN CERTAIN AREAS
ON ALFALFA AND OTHER CROPS. RANGELAND CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO
SEE IMPACTS AS WELL. CONCERNS ABOUT FORAGE FOR CATTLE ARE BEING
REPORTED DUE TO LIMITED GRASS POTENTIAL. EXTENSION REPORTS FROM
THE MIDDLE OF SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE MENTIONED PRODUCERS CONSIDERING
PLANTING FORAGE UNDER IRRIGATION TO ASSURE SUFFICIENT CATTLE FEED.
THE LATEST USDA NASS REPORT SHOWED STOCK WATER SUPPLIES 39 PERCENT
SHORT OR VERY SHORT.

RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS.
SEVEN-DAY AVERAGE STREAM FLOW COMPARED TO HISTORICAL STREAM FLOW
IS BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE BAD RIVER NEAR FORT PIERRE IS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL AT
THE 14TH PERCENTILE. THE BIG SIOUX RIVER NEAR WATERTOWN IS ALSO
BELOW NORMAL AND IS RUNNING AT THE 23RD PERCENTILE. FURTHER
NORTH...THE LITTLE MINNESOTA RIVER NEAR PEEVER IS AT 19 PERCENT
AND THE BOIS DE SIOUX RIVER NEAR WHITE ROCK IS AT 24 PERCENT...
BOTH OF WHICH ARE BELOW NORMAL. MOST OF THE JAMES RIVER ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE...AS WELL AS THE
GRAND AND MOREAU RIVERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER
DURING APRIL DUE TO THE DRYNESS...ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS. GREEN-UP HAS BEEN SLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SEVERAL GRASS FIRES ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE PAST
MONTH.

CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.
NONE KNOWN AT THIS TIME.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR APRIL WERE GENERALLY 1 INCH TO 1.50
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE JANUARY 1ST...TOTALS
HAVE BEEN ROUGHLY 1.75 INCHES TO NEARLY 3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
GOING BACK TO OCTOBER 1ST...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ARE AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ELSEWHERE FROM CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TOTALS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PAST
TWO MONTHS. DURING APRIL...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
WERE ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR MARCH...AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WERE 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST ONE-MONTH OUTLOOK
CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL...OR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK
ALSO CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

ALL MAJOR RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE
PROBABILITY OF THESE RIVERS REACHING FLOOD STAGE THROUGH JULY IS
BELOW 50 PERCENT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MAY 30TH OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT
HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.HPRCC.UNL.EDU
NWS RIVER INFORMATION...HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABR
USDA CROP INFORMATION...HTTP://WWW.NASS.USDA.GOV/INDEX.ASP
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...HTTP://CLIMATE.SDSTATE.EDU
SDSU EXTENSION...HTTP://IGROW.ORG/AGRONOMY/DROUGHT
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER...HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...
STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

TRAVIS TARVER - DROUGHT FOCAL POINT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
824 BROWN COUNTY 14 SOUTH
ABERDEEN SD 57401
PHONE...605-225-0519
TRAVIS.TARVER@NOAA.GOV

$$
TMT











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