Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 170553
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1253 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED FORECAST WITH THE CURRENT OBS. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
DUMPED DOWN TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS AND DEWPOINTS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AS DISCUSSED BELOW...DRY AIR/LIGHT WINDS/A CLEAR SKY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH THE 40S. ALREADY SOME MID 30S
REPORTED AT HETTINGER AND TIOGA. WILL BUMP OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A
BIT MORE. PRODUCTS OUT IN THE NEXT 15-20 MINUTES.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VERY DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWERED DEW POINTS A
BIT CLOSER TO THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO BEST CAPTURE THIS...TEENS TO
LOW 20S WEST AND CENTRAL...30S OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST. WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND WINDS TAPERING OFF...A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT SO DID TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A TAD...LOW 30S OVER MY WEST. MAY
NEED TO GO LOWER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

H500 DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AND THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA FORMING A
REGION OF SINKING/DRYING AIR OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST.
THESE FEATURES WILL CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. USED THE RAWBLEND GUIDANCE WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL PAST
FEW NIGHT FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. FOR HIGHS FRIDAY FOLLOWED THE
EUROPEAN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. THIS GAVE HIGHS CLOSE TO 70.

SEVERAL FACTORS COMBINING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOW THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. VEGETATION STILL LARGELY DORMANT AND LACK OF SOIL
MOISTURE KEEPS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION LOW. SO MAX RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TONIGHT SHOULD BE WELL BELOW SATURATION AND IN THE 70S...WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AROUND 20 PERCENT. WHAT WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS LOW WILL BE THE LACK OF WIND. EXPECTING
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A COOL AND DREARY PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TROUGH TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS LOW WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE LIFT SUPPLIED BY ANOTHER
LOW...AND COLD FRONT...PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. AT THIS TIME THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF
INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL (HALF INCH OR GREATER) WILL FALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. AS THE TWO
LOWS PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND COMBINE THEY SHOULD CREATE A RATHER
DEEP AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT APPEARS THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AC





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