Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231755
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1255 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20 TO 25 F ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...REFLECTIVE OF DRY SUB-800 MB AIR...MOST OF
THE RETURNS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 1730 UTC HAVE NOT
BEEN REACHING THE GROUND. THUS...DID TREND POPS DOWN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND THE WEAKENING TRENDS OF ONGOING
PRECIPITATION ON THE 12 UTC WRF-NMM/ARW AND 14-16 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FORECAST FOR THE MORNING REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE 00 UTC WRF-NMM
AND ARW WITH THE BEST HANDLING OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
AS OF 1330 UTC AND WILL WEIGH HEAVILY ON THESE SOLUTIONS THROUGH
THE DAY.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

BUMPED UP SKY COVER WEST WITH CLOUDS MOVING EAST A BIT FASTER THAN
WHAT WAS FORECAST. ALSO TWEAKED POPS BASED ON LATEST HIGH RES
OUTPUT FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS SHOULD ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...PUSHING
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THE LATEST 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BROUGHT THE
PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA A BIT QUICKER.
QPF TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH. AT THIS TIME THINKING SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE REGION WILL BE IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...CAN NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FORMING NORTH OF
THE WEAK WARM FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS DID PUT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM HIGHWAY 83 TO POINTS EAST WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 20S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH WINDS IN THE AREA
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SEMI-ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A QUIETER PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO SHIFT
THROUGH THAT AREA.

FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN MATERIALIZES FROM A
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
WESTERN ND SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...SHIFTING NORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST
INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THIS TIME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AFTERWARDS...MONDAY NIGHT AND ONWARDS...RIDGING DEVELOPS
PROMOTING DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. RATHER LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z GFS/EC...SO DETAILS ARE LACKING AT THIS
TIME FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z
TAF CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF WYOMING MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM HIGHWAY 83 TO POINTS EAST WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 20S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH WINDS IN THE AREA
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...MM








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