Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221513
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1013 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

INHERITED FORECAST ON TRACK...NO MAJOR EDITS BESIDES TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE FALLEN
DOWN TO THE TEENS TONIGHT. COLDEST LOCATIONS ARE LOCALIZED AS THE 07 UTC
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HAZEN
AND GARRISON. DROPPED PREVIOUS FORECASTED TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONS AND ACCOUNT FOR MORE COOLING.

FOR WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 WEST. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST TO MORE ZONAL THURSDAY AS A
ROCKY MOUNTAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...EACH BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MOISTURE
STILL APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
MODELS DEPICT STRONG ENERGY ALOFT AND A MORE DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY
PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW/MID 60S...AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY WILL SEE WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. PERCENT MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 20S...SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...MM/NH





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