Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 020245
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
945 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HAVE CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
CENTRAL THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE ARE A FEW MID CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE
OR TWO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TRACKING FROM NORTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO ADD A
MENTION OF SHOWERS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE DIMINISHING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WIND HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

QUICK UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST HOUR. ADVISORY WINDS ARE NO LONGER
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS WE LOSE OUR DAYTIME
HEATING. WILL STILL BE BREEZY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS PICKING UP
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER WINDY DAY
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER.
ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINTS LOWER OVER THE SOUTHWEST USED A COMBINATION
OF CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE LATEST RAP SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS IS
STILL GIVING SUB 20 PERCENT RH VALUES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...WITH SURFACE WINDS STILL STRONG OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR NOW...WHICH EXPIRES AT 10
PM CENTRAL. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WINDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO SEE IF
WE CAN LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN ITS WAKE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW ROTATING NEAR
THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT THOUGH STILL
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT TIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL TOWARDS MORNING
WHEN SHORT WAVE SWINGING AROUND EASTERLY MOVING UPPER LOW NUDGES
INTO THE AREA BRINGING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST.

ON THURSDAY...WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS WITH
THE NEXT ROUND OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO
RE-EVALUATE ON LATER SHIFTS TO SEE IF ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE LOW SIDE OVER THE SOUTH WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE CONCERNS (PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO VACATE THE REGION...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A SLIGHT WARM
UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY.
THE EXTENDED RANGE FEATURES NUMEROUS EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN A
FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE...TIMING...TRACK...AND INTENSITY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL PICK UP AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF
SITES. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FOR NOW KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND A VCSH ACROSS THE NORTH INCLUDING KISN AND KMOT. NOT
AS CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS REACHING THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THE GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT TO POSSIBLY BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED OVER THIS AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ040>046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS





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