Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 270240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SWATH OF RAIN NOTED ON AREA RADARS STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY.

UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND AS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
JUST EAST OF MINOT TO JUST WEST OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO
SPREAD EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT FINALLY PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 40S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS AREA AND
TO THE WEST WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS AND GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MINOT TO DICKINSON IN THE MORNING...TO
AROUND BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY...SOUTHWEST TO BISMARCK AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS
SCENARIO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST WITH LOW TO MID 50
READINGS (MAYBE EVEN SOME 40S LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY IN THE
SOUTHWEST) FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE SOUTHWEST TO
BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY. A CLEAR SKY WILL DEVELOP FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
ADVANCE OF A 700MB-500MB RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TAKE FIRM
CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY ACROSS
ALL  OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE GFS
AND ECMWF EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS ALREADY HAS IT EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS YESTERDAYS GFS
MODEL RUN WAS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER SOLUTION...MUCH LIKE WHAT THE GFS WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.
THUS...WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION...DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY ON MONDAY...THOUGH KDIK MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS






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