Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 161740
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1240 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

BASED ON DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ASSUME BROAD SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A H250 JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN THE
WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OF THE STATE AT THIS TIME.
REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND RAISED SURFACE WINDS A BIT TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD SO FAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS LEADING TO DIMINISHED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL. RADAR TRENDS CONFIRM THE PRECIPITATION RETURNS ARE
DIMINISHING ON BISMARCK AND BOWMAN RADARS. MUCH OF THIS IS PROBABLY
NOT REACHING THE GROUND. TRENDED THE SMALL POPS IN THE GRIDS DOWN
FURTHER. SO FAR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED BY AREA RADARS
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WITH RATHER LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY EXPECT IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND IT REMAINS
VERY LIGHT. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONLY
CHANGE FOR UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT AS IT HAS
SPREAD FURTHER TO THE NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES AND MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA.
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA IN
A ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FASHION OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
PEMBINA...TO BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR MOBRIDGE IN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

THE SLOW-MOVING SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST.
WINDS TODAY SHOULD BE NORTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DECREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. DRY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT...BUT
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ON FRIDAY WESTERN CONUS WILL BE IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL
KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR AREA. ON
SATURDAY SOUTHERN LOW EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS WHILE POTENT
TROF/COLD FRONT DIVE IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH UPPER LOW
CLOSING OFF OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION WRAPPING OVER THE SOUTHERN LOW DURING THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH
ADDITIONAL GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COMING LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHERN TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH. SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS SOUTHWARD
AND PASSES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD
AND LINGERING OVER ONTARIO. THIS WILL KEEP COOL NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES STREAM THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST. VFR ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA






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