Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 160223
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
923 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

RADAR ECHOS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST...OTHERWISE DRY SO ONCE AGAIN
SCALED BACK ON POPS FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHER EDITS MINOR.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED WITH WINDS TAPERING
OFF AND RH VALUES QUICKLY INCREASING.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

SCALED BACK ON POPS A BIT WITH A VOID OF ANY SORT OF DECENT RADAR
RETURNS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
AS WE ARE NOW BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EAST...AND WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF FURTHER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST WEST OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL SPIRAL NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN. BAND
OF ENHANCED RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARDS MY SOUTHWEST. WITH T/TD SPREADS
20-30F...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z...ROUGHLY 45-50
MINUTES FROM NOW...AS WINDS TAPER OFF AND RH VALUES INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT BUT WILL
DIMINISH TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE EAST THAN EARLIER FORECAST. THE RESULT HAS
BEEN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
RESULTED AN MULTIPLE FIRES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY ARRIVE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THEN TO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
CLOUDS ARE BEING DRAWN UP THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SOME
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE HRRR DOES GENERATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST...BUT GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THOUGH.

MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. BUT KEPT THE POPS LESS THAN 40 PERCENT.

ON THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS 60 TO 65.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AS IT SAGS SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING. SPLIT FLOW REMAINS OVER NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JUST GRAZING FAR NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA/TURTLE MOUNTAINS. A CLOSED LOW OVER COLORADO SLOWLY
EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH NORTH DAKOTA CAUGHT BETWEEN
THESE TWO STREAMS FRIDAY AND WILL MOSTLY REMAIN IN A LULL FRIDAY
WITH BENIGN WEATHER. FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME INTERACTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SPINNING INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM
AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA 00Z SUNDAY. VARYING SOLUTIONS
AS TO THE TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS REPRESENTS THE FASTEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SOLUTIONS...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
BORDER BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. THE GEM/ECMWF REPRESENT SLOWER SOLUTIONS
AND ARE MORE IN LINE WITH RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD THERMAL
TROUGH/POCKET IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS IDEA.
850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN -2C TO -8C THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. DESPITE A COOLING
TREND SUNDAY ONWARD...STRONG WINDS AT TIMES WILL ALIGN WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
MAY WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. IN ADDITION MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OF AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHWEST MAY ALSO WARRANT A FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINE SUNDAY. THEN ON MONDAY THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ALIGNED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS THIS REPRESENTS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S
WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS/PRECIPITATION EVENTS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST FORECAST
CONCERN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35-40 KNOTS AT KJMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS CALMING TO THE WEST. BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AT KDIK/KISN
TONIGHT...THEN FOR OTHER TERMINALS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

RED FLAG WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. ON THURSDAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST. HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
BE MUCH LOWER.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...NH





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