Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KBIS 210210
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
910 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WILL TAKE A QUICK
LOOK AT 9 PM OBS SHORTLY TO EVALUATE RED FLAG WARNING...BUT EXPECT
WE WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL BEFORE 10 PM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING
TO OVER 40 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS AT 6 PM...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RED FLAG WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. IF WINDS DIMINISH AS PLANNED MAY BE
ABLE TO CANCEL BOTH A 9 PM...IF NOT A LITTLE BEFORE.

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AS IT DROPS
THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS
NOTED ON CANADIAN RADARS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CUMULUS FIELDS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE DRY AXIS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET. THEREAFTER...A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE 12
UTC AND INCOMING 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO RESULT FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FALLING AS LIGHT
SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER COOL AND QUIET.

THROUGH MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE LONG TERM MODELS ENTERING THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE 00Z FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CLOUDS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. LOW VFR
CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO KJMS. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUDS BUT
MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS
BAND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS...KBIS...KMOT...KISN AND KDIK COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. CURRENTLY KBIS LOOKS TO BE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY BASED ON LATEST FORECASTS SO WE DO HAVE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KBIS FROM 09-12 UTC TUESDAY. LOW VFR
CLOUDS AT KJMS MAY LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET AT THIS TIME TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

ON TUESDAY...CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.