Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 010514
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME...WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AND END ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 07Z.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW FOG JUST EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE LATEST HRRR LOW VISIBILITY FORECAST
JUST GRAZING ROLETTE AND POSSIBLY PIERCE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...SO
HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE CLEAR FORECAST WITH HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT.
CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE FIRE WEATHER AND WILL BE
FOCUSING ON THIS FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING TRENDS
IN THE 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 06-07
UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME AT 00 UTC. AS
OF 00 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE OAHE...WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU TO
BISMARCK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
AROUND 25 PERCENT FROM SOUTHEAST EMMONS COUNTY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
IS MARGINAL OVER THE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING BUT WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN WINDS
DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RISE.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL..THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 18Z FRIDAY TO
00Z SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE RAIN BY MID WEEK...HIGHLIGHTS THE
LONG TERM.

THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THEREAFTER...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
CREATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25KT
AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...KS


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