Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 301145
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE BORDER BUT LITTLE REACHNG THE
GROUND. KEPT THE 30 POPS FOR WESTERN NROTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. RED FLAG WARMING BEGINS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST ABOUT TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT
GRASSES. WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT AND WINDS AROUND
30 MPH...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY RAISE DEW POINTS...AND THEREFORE HUMIDITY...AND GREATLY
IMPROVE FIRE CONDITIONS.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/GEM/SREF) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TODAY. THEY
DIVERGE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE HIGH-RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT COMPLETELY THOUGH
THE AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS FEEL THAT IS A LITTLE UNDER DONE. THEREFORE LEFT A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN IN FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT WITH GOOD FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTANT MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST. NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY IS THERE A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD COOLER
CANADIAN AIR WILL RETURN...BUT NOT TOO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/AJ



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