Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261435
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND CLOUDS...AS THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL IN BENSON AND TOWNER COUNTIES BUT WILL
KEEP SOME CHANCE OR ISOLATED POPS A BIT LONGER IN CASE THERE IS
SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC TROUGH WILL BEGIN
WASHING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD (EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS). WEST OF
THE VALLEY (KDVL)...CURRENT 4000FT CIGS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG






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