Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 062340
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

AREAS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
WAVES EJECT FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRY VS RAINY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT WILL LEAVE THE HIGHER POPS SINCE MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE PRECIP AT SOME POINT. OTHERWISE...WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE HIGHER POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

FCST ON TRACK. MAIN 500 MB LOW NR THE COLORADO/KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER AT MID AFTN. A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTH
THRU THE AREA SO FAR TODAY...ONE THAT MOVED THRU THIS MORNING NOW
INTO MANITOBA AND THE OTHER FROM THIEF RIVER FALLS THROUGH GRAND
FORKS TOWARD VALLEY CITY. THIS SECOND BAND IS A BIT WIDER THAN THE
FIRST. THERE SMALL DRY SLOTS IN BETWEEN EACH BAND...WITH A BIT
LARGER DRY SLOT AREA FROM ENTERING ECNTRL/SE SD INTO SW MN. OUT
AHEAD OF THIS DRY SLOT IS AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER FROM
ORTONVILLE TO MANKATO MN. OVERALL...AS UPPER SHORT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EXPECT BANDS OF SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THRU THE AREA. AT FIRST MAIN RAINFALL ALONG AND
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT IN TIME AS MAIN SHORT WAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST EXPECT HEAVIER RAINFALL TO SHIFT MORE TOWARD AREAS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ENTIRE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...THOUGH AS
USUAL SOME LOCAL VARIATIONS. AS FOR THUNDER....NOT LOOKING TO
GREAT BUT DID KEEP IN ISOLD T FOR TONIGHT ALL AREAS AS SHOWWALTERS
DO GO A BIT BELOW ZERO (MAINLY SE ND/WCNTRL MN) IN DRY SLOT AREA
AND THEN EAST OF THE RED RIVER THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH 500 MB
SHORT WAVE. LOOK FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP THURSDAY
AFTN IN ERN ND AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTH BREEZE AND LOWS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

QUESTION WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER FRI-SAT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST BEHIND DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
BUT HOW FAR SOUTH WILL DRY AIR MAKE IT IS QUESTIONABLE. OVERALL
FEEL SOME CLEARING WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THOUGH
DAYTIME STRATOCU WILL DEVELOP...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY
SCENARIO FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS RETURN
SAT AFTN. FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY AM COULD SEE SOME FROST IN NE ND/NW
MN IF SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. FCST LOWS AROUND 30-32. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FEW 20S IF INDEED SKY CLEARS COMPLETELY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAJOR H5 SHORTWAVE TROF
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE 4CORNERS AREA APPEARS TO STAY
INTACT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD... WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
TRANSITING THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF THE
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A SECOND COLORADO LOW TYPE
SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE SUN-MON TIMEFRAME... BUT
NEITHER IS CONSISTENT IN PUSHING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALL THE WAY
INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN VALLEY IS
MOST LIKELY TO GET THAT SECOND HEAVIER RAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS UNTIL TUESDAY...UNTIL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RESUMES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

MOST AREAS NOW HAVE VFR CIGS WHICH THE RAP/HRRR SUGGEST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (ALTHOUGH COULD BE
LOWER VSBY WITHIN ANY POSSIBLE SHOWER). ANTICIPATE AT LEAST MVFR
CIGS RE-DEVELOPING BY THUR MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SCENARIO IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GUST/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG




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