Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 051201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ. ANOTHER UPPER LOW
WAS OVER THE BC COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER SASK. UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER BC COAST WILL MOVE EAST THEN SOUTH AND WILL AFFECT AREA IN
THE LONG TERM. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THU. MORE THERMODYNAMICS THAN
DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ESSENTIALLY NO UPPER LEVEL JET. OPEN WAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA
WED THEN VEERS TO THE EAST. QUESTION THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET.

IN CONTRAST, SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE ON WED/WED NIGHT. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THU. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEAR ONE AND HALF
INCHES BY WED AFTERNOON AND REMAINS ABOVE AN INCH UNTIL COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON THU. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON WED AND THEN AGAIN THU WITH
COLD FRONT.

WILL KEEP FROST ADVISORY IN THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH COOL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AGAIN FOR THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS TO OUR
WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
BY SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIP STARTING TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...TAKING IT OFF INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY WHILE THE
GFS HAS THE CUT OFF LOW SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY. KEPT THE BLENDED SOLUTION WITH HIGH POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER ON MONDAY AS WRAP AROUND TAPERS OFF. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS BUT NEAR AVERAGE ON LOWS WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATE PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS 8 TO 10
THOUSAND FT WERE MOVING NORTH NORTH EAST OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN ND. WILL ADD MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO DVL AND GFK FOR TODAY. WIND
SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

ANOTHER DAY OF DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEGINS TO BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS TONIGHT. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP DOWN TO NEAR THE 20 PERCENT
MARK. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW
CRITERIA BUT WE SHOULD HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL BE EVEN DRIER...INTO
THE TEENS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. GIVEN THE CONTINUED VERY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038.

MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ006-009-016-
     017-024.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES
FIRE WEATHER...JR



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