Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. REST OF FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS TIME AROUND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS FROM THE PACIFIC INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. ONE SUCH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE HAS HELPED
PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...A COOLER AIR MASS...AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS SHOULD
DROP WELL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY FOR
TOMORROW AS SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS SET UP WHEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. HAVE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AGAIN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO AND OFF TO THE EAST WILL HELP PUSH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THINK THAT THE
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SO FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM...BUT WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO OUR EAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 30S BUT SOME 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH
WHERE CLOUDS WILL START MOVING IN AND THE AIR MASS WILL BE A TAD
WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
ALONG WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE COMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TIMING...BUT
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO LAG A
BIT BEHIND IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH
THE GFS AGAIN THE FASTEST. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM GIVEN THEY
SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST BALANCE BETWEEN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE FACT THAT IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO SATURATE OUR DRY AIR.
THINK THAT SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BUT SOME RAIN COULD
START MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. THERE SEEMS
TO BE SOME AGREEMENT ON THE BEST RAINFALL ARRIVING SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME WRAP AROUND LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. THINK THAT IT
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S FOR SATURDAY AS
WE SHOULD STILL SEEM SOME WARMING BEFORE PRECIP MOVES IN...THEN
SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER IN THE 50S WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WET CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER
LOW/BROAD TROF OVER ERN MANITOBA EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
DAKOTAS...AND SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS BRINGS EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN ZONES AS LOW SHIFTS
INTO CNTRL ONTARIO...RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY...AND THEN BEGINS TO
SPIN OVER HUDSON BAY AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS KEEPS THE EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN A CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY AND
MIXED PRECIP AT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW PATTERN THEN
SETS UP FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT AS UPPER LOW MOVES MORE
INTO EASTERN CANADA...ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BRINGING HIGH BUT
COOL WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY FRONT WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST TOMORROW. COULD BE BREEZY ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER






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