Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY,
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NOW AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND. LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER MN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND RESTRICT
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST,
INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL TRIM
BACK QPF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW QUICKLY 500MB RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH IT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FORTIES WILL MODERATE TO LOW
FIFTIES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE MOVING NORTH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
EAST TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SURROUND THE IFR AREA OR ROUGHLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY TO S OF GFK TO N OF WASKISH MN.
ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS WERE AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FT. VFR CIGS WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 15
HUNDRED FT OVER FAR NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
ROUGHLY AFTER 17Z TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPPES



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