Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 151745
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP WITH RANDOM SPOTS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
HEADLINES GOING. DELAYED THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY PRECIP TONIGHT
UNTIL AFTER 06Z AS EVEN THE WEAK SIGNALS THAT MODELS ARE GIVING
FOR PRECIP HOLD OFF UNTIL THEN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE. WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL CWA ARE ALREADY HITTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THAT
SHOULD SPREAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. WILL KEEP HEADLINES
AS THEY ARE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND
STRONG WINDS TODAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS. PREFER THE GFS THAT HAS BEEN
MUCH BETTER WITH STRONGER WINDS DURING THIS DRY REGIME...IN
PARTICULAR THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS.

FOR TODAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 40-50KT TO MIX UP TO
AROUND 800MB THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. THE FAR NORTHERN
VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55
MPH...BORDERLINE HIGH WIND CRITERIA. WE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST...WITH AREAS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
HAVING BORDERLINE HIGH WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 40 MPH/GUST TO
50KT). WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A POTENTIAL UPGRADE FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES. WE HAVE ALSO BEEN GETTING BLOWING DUST
IN THE VALLEY WHERE FARMERS HAVE TILLED FIELDS. WE WILL ADD SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST TO THE GRIDS FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
SOME REDUCTION OF VSBY POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS GIVEN A WARM START.

FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE THREAT
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN DECREASING WITH EACH MODEL RUN. WE WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH WITH MUCH
RAIN AT ALL.

ON THU...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST...BUT
ONCE AGAIN MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...LOOK FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...THE CONTINUATION OF THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY...LOOKING AT THE 500MB PATTERN THE
STAGNANT CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BECOME A BROAD TROUGH AS A STRONGER
LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEN THIS NORTHERN LOW
BECOMES THE STAGNANT FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES STARTING ON SAT NIGHT. LONG
TERM MODELS SHOW A GOOD HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF PCPN GETTING LIFTED
UP INTO THE FA SAT NIGHT/SUN. ECMWF MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE ENTIRE FA
WHILE THE GEM/GFS WOULD HAVE IT MORE ACROSS THE EASTERN FA. SINCE WE
HAVE BEEN IN SUCH A DRY PATTERN THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON THIS ONE AS
FAR AS WHETHER THIS MUCH PCPN IS POSSIBLE AND EXACTLY WHERE. WOULD
BE IN A LIGHTER WRAPAROUND PCPN SCENARIO SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.
TEMPS LOOK COLD ENOUGH SUN NIGHT/MON NIGHT THAT A MIX OR SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING NORTHWEST. SKY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE
PERIOD...AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG ADVERTISED WINDIER DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY. THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN THE
DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED TODAY. LATEST FORECAST SHOWS THESE
HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE VERY WINDY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. NO DOUBT A VERY DANGEROUS SCENARIO SETTING UP AGAIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...GODON





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