Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 171200
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST MN AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHEAST ND FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WAS OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. PATTERN FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST OF CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY SAT AND BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY. CONCURRENTLY FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, BECOME INCORPORATED, AND MOVE OUT AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM
AMPLIFICATION.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CURRENTLY DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RISE SOME WITH APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OUT OF CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO
OVER AN INCH SAT NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW AND LOW LEVEL JET.
SHOWALTERS APPROACH ZERO OR SLIGHTLY POSITIVE FOR SAT NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN
SASK/MAN BORDER WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO STAY IN
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MAN. WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO INTO WY.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY. SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF LAKE
MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH OF LS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MONDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXTENDED TIME FRAME WITH A STABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 500MB TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE AREA IN
NW TO CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEPENDING WESTERN EXTENT OF VORT LOBE
ROTATING BACK TO THE AREA MID WEEK. NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEST CHANCES EAST IN THE MN PINES...FOR A
RAIN...MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AS 850MB
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE 2C TO 6C DEGREES FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ESSENTIALLY A CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. MAY HAVE A FEW HIGH
BASED CUMULUS FORM THIS AFTERNOON UP AROUND 8 OR 9 THOUSAND FT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF CANADA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ008-016-027.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ001-004>009-013>016.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPPES



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