Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 011150
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

FOG HAS BEEN DENSE IN SOME SPOTS...BUT WEB CAMS SHOW THAT COVERAGE
HAS BEEN PATCHY. GIVEN THAT THE REALLY DENSE FOG IS NOT
WIDESPREAD...WILL JUST COVER WITH A NOWCAST UNTIL 9 AM. THINK THAT
THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LEAVING SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

PRECIP THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS...ALONG WITH WIND TODAY FOR FIRE WEATHER.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AS THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST. THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND WASH OUT...LEAVING RELATIVELY LIGHTER WEST
WINDS. RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD BEFORE THE WESTERLY
WINDS START TO PICK UP BUT AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WITH RECENT
RAINFALL SOME RADIATION FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
IT IS SOMEWHAT PATCHY...WITH KDVL SHOWING 10SM RIGHT NOW. EXPANDED
THE FOG MENTION IN THE GRIDS BUT GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE WILL JUST
KEEP AN EYE ON WEB CAMS AND OBS FOR NOW AND HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES.

WITH WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WE SHOULD DRY OUT NICELY BY AFTERNOON
AND TEMPS WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE 70S ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE BUT WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LESS TODAY...AROUND 10 KTS IN THE VALLEY AND EASTWARD...WITH
MAX OF LESS THAN 15 KTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THERE SHOULD
BE A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KDVL SHOW AT
MOST A 10 TO 15 KTS AT THE TOP...SO THINK THAT GUSTINESS WILL NOT
BE TOO HIGH. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RAMP UP INTO
TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. THE WINDS SHOULD HELP TEMPS FRIDAY
NIGHT TO STAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.

SATURDAY...A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL ND.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH DECENT MIXING HIGHS COULD GET INTO THE LOW 80S IN SOME AREAS.
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING...WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO AND EVEN
ABOVE 1 INCH. THERE COULD BE SOME CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND
WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 50 KTS SOME MARGINAL
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE POPS STARTING OUT SLOW IN THE
WEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT RAMPING UP LATE SATURDAY
TOWARDS SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO...BRINGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOOD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE THE BOUNDARY PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT SOME
MODELS SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER BACK BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MILD SATURDAY NIGHT
THANKS TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER THAN SATURDAY ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S...DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM AND BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDWEEK. MODELS
ARE INDICATING AN OPEN GULF WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TO BRING SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CNTRL PLAINS AND NORTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF CYCLONE AND WILL REMOVE ANY LIKELY POPS AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD IN THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN MAINLY AFFECTING THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
KFAR AND KGFK GOING IN AND OUT OF VLIFR WITH VIS DOWN TO 1/4SM
ALTHOUGH KFAR HAS BEEN IMPROVING SOMEWHAT. OTHER SITES HAVE HAD
MAINLY 2-5SM BR AND MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE LOW VIS SHOULD
START TO IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH VIS UP TO VFR BY 15
OR 16Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE WEST AT AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
DAKOTAS FRIDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN FAR EASTERN ND AND
MOVED ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN THIS EVENING...BUT THE DVL REGION
RECEIVED LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...WHILE A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER WILL SET UP
BY 21Z...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ARE ON THE ORDER OF 10 KTS.
FURTHER WEST...COLUMN WINDS ARE AROUND 20KTS AT MINOT. NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION UP
THROUGH LANGDON...BUT THE HIGHER THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AND N
CNTRL ND AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO WEAK FLOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR
FIRE WEATHER...SPEICHER






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