Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210230
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENST TO POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT... WITH MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD... MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH AN
INCH OR SO ON GRASSY SURFACES FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO NORTHCENTRAL
MN. OTHERWSIE... WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL RRV FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BUT ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE
WILL BE SCANT. WIND GUSTS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING... BUT A LIGHT TO
MODERATE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTHCENTRAL MN HAVE COOLED NEAR TO BELOW THE FREEZING PINT
NOW ...SO EXPECT PATCHY ICE DEVELOPING ON ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS
AS WET PAVEMENT COOLS DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ENDS
UP TONIGHT AND PCPN CHANCES UNDER THEM. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE
WERE STILL EXTENSIVE CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE FA. TEMPS WERE IN THE
LOW 30S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WEST. LOTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS SHOW BIG
FLAKES IN SPOTS BUT NOTHING OTHER THAN SOME WET ROADS. EARLIER
THIS MORNING THERE WERE SOME WHITE SPOTS IN GRASSY AREAS IN THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. AS TEMPS FALL A BIT TONIGHT THAT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN...BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS IS AND LET THE
EVENING CREW EXPIRE IT AS NEED BE. TUE LOOKS WINDY AGAIN WITH THE
SNOW SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN FA. CURRENTLY HAVE THE
CLOUDS ALSO HANGING TOUGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. THEREFORE
HIGHS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN FA. THE GUSTY
WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...SO ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL IT GETS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR WED AND THU. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BUT MORE IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. HIGHS BOTH DAYS REMAIN ON THE COLDER SIDE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS HAVE BECOME LESS AGREEABLE AS THE 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. THE GFS
AND GEM KEEP STEEL NW FLOW/SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY INDICATES MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS AFFECTS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY START BELOW NORMAL...AND TRANSITION TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RRV AND EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MN THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT. POINTS ALG AND WEST OF AN HCO-GFK-JMS LINE WILL SEE
MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FROM THE DVL BASIN INTO JMS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EXPECT VFR CIGS BECOMING SCT. MVFR DECK SHOULD
STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MN THROUGH TUESDAY
FORENOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GUST






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