Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 162053
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY MUCH THE
NAME OF THE GAME IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH COOL AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IDENTIFIED A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...TIED TO THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT HAVE
A DRY FORECAST WITH TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TAKE ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10KTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PV ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL THETA_E ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA...AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE MEASURABLE PRECIP.

THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR QPF
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A HALF AN INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
SEE AROUND AN INCH. THEREFORE INCREASED QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO THE
HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND WITH OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED DO NOT FORESEE
ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE KEPT ONLY RAIN FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THE
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

LOOKING AHEAD...H850 TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. THE THERM FIELDS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH
COLD...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...SO CONTINUED THE CURRENT TREND OF
HAVING MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE COLDEST HOURS OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST BEING THE A NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN THE WINDS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF THE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT MAGNITUDE...BUT SHOULD SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JRB



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