Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 202035
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
335 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

A FEW RAIN...SNOW...OR SLEET SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY HAS BEEN THE MAIN IMPACT...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN REPORTED. THESE
SHOWERS WILL WANE ACROSS SWRN MN...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE AND BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NORTH OF I-94 AS THE MAIN
PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH. THERE MAY BE UP TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW UNDER THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST MN AND NORTHWEST WI.

WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO IMPRESSIVE TODAY...PROBABLY DUE TO
SHALLOWER MIXING BROUGHT ON BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 20 KT CONTINUING...AND WITH
CLOUD COVER REMAINING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. MIXING UP TO 800 MB TUESDAY ONLY YIELDS HIGHS IN
THE LOW 40S...SO LOWERED TEMPS A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...

WE WILL SEE THINGS VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK... AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PART OF THE
CONTINENT SLIDES EAST AND EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO WESTERLY/ZONAL
FLOW BY THE WEEKEND.

FORECAST ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...

WE/LL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH SOME LINGERING SHRA/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR EACH NIGHT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... WHICH COULD CAUSE ISSUES FOR ANY SENSITIVE
PLANT WHICH MAY ALREADY BE GROWING.

MODEL DISCUSSION/PREFERENCES...

MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE IS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH THE ECMWF A BIT QUICKER WITH RETURN FLOW AND POTENTIAL PCPN
MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA. THE CANADIAN OFFERS SOMEWHAT OF A
COMPROMISE IN TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND SLOWER GFS. THE GEFS MEAN
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS... ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR
DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES AND LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION... DID NOT MAKE ANY SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES FROM THE CONSENSUS/BLENDED GUIDANCE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS...

LINGERING SHRA/FLURRIES INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST... OTHERWISE
DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.
INTRODUCED SOME CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY... ALTHOUGH IF THE QUICK ECMWF PANS OUT THAT MAY NEED TO BE
SPED UP A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

CIGS ARE IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY
STAY THERE INTO THE EVENING. SOME LOWERING EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES BY 09Z. HOWEVER AS
MIXING DEEPENS TUESDAY...A RETURN TO VFR APPEARS LIKELY BY 15Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND EASTERN SD WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. ATTM...BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO GO DOWN THE VCSH ROUTE
AS THESE CELLS ARE NOT THAT BIG AND ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE BRIEF.
AXN...STC...RNH...AND EAU WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS AT
SOME POINT...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE FOR ANYTHING
PREVAILING.

KMSP...LIKELY REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CANNOT
TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF


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