Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 272041
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
341 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FRONT
ON TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT.  STILL EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT...BUT READING SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH CLOUDS
AND EVENTUALLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT.  IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEAK FRONT MOVING TO NEAR A KSTC-KMVE
LINE BY 12Z TUE...AND THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA BY 23Z.  BANDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED.  DRIER ATMOSPHERE TO THE
EAST WILL PRECLUDE THREAT INTO THE SOUTHEAST CWA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
LOWER 70S INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN WILL THINNER CLOUD COVER AND BETTER
MIXING WITH THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
TUESDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE AS A WESTERN
RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL MEAN A SLIGHTLY LOWER POTENTIAL FOR WARMING INITIALLY...BUT
WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE MID 60 TO LOWER 70 DEGREE
READINGS ON WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY...WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY IN
DIRECTION...WITH MODERATING LLVL TEMPS AND A BIT HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR MIXING AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. THE
MAIN WARMING IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...WHERE MID 70S
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE SHORT OF IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE 20-30 POPS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE AN EVEN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
WARMTH AS 850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND OR EVEN ABOVE +12C. THIS
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT THAT COULD BRING A DECENT
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A PART OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...WHICH IS OF LOW
CERTAINTY RIGHT NOW...WILL HEAVILY PLAY INTO PRECIP CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...SOUTHERN MN APPEARS TO HAVE LIKELY PRECIP
CHANCES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
APPEAR PROBABLE AREA-WIDE AS WELL. WILL NEED TO TWEAK BOTH
PARAMETERS AS THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT BECOME MORE
CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED FROM NEAR KSTC-KRWF THROUGH 12Z TUE. NW-N
WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL
OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING EXITS AND THE DAKOTAS FRONT MOVES EAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE N-NW WITH FROPA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH VCSH INDICATED AFTER
10Z AT KAXN FOR NOW.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH PERIOD. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AOA 060 AFTER
FROPA WHICH OCCURS AROUND 16Z TUE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...VRBL TONIGHT AND BECOMING N-NW TUESDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS BECOMING SE.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE



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