Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 262020
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
320 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURE TREND.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT SOME LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ALONG THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY 30 TO 35
ELSEWHERE.  WE DID MANAGE TO MIX DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP
WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY.

SUNSHINE WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN FOR MONDAY.  PERHAPS SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO 65 TO 70 OVER MN AREA AND THE
LOW TO MID 60S INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MIX ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS TO 850 MB PER BUFKIT
SOUNDING FORECAST.  THIS WILL LOWER HUMIDITY TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE CONTINUED SPRING GREEN UP...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
MINIMIZED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE SHOTS OF PRECIPITATION MARK THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

THE WORK WEEK STARTS OF ON A PLEASANT NOTE...WITH MONDAY FEATURING MILD
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LIGHT WINDS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE STILL APPEAR MEAGER...SO 20-30 POPS ARE SUFFICIENT.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPS OF +10C TO
+15C ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT CONSISTENCY IS ONLY SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE
20-30 POPS AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE
INDICATING A STRONGER FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD MEAN A PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR/SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT NE WINDS BECOMING SE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF HE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

KMSP..
WIND IS THE ONLY PROBLEM THIS PERIOD. SHOULD SEE A MORE NE
COMPONENT DEVELOP WITH MIX THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIGHT NORTH
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. SLGT CHC OF MRNG -SHRA. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE


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