Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 212353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO THE
EVENING HOUR. SCATTERED SW-/RW- MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z. THEN SHOULD SEE DRYING TREND WITH WIND DECREASING.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 TO 30 DEGREES
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MAY NOT BREAK OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

STILL HAVE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS. SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE
OVER MOST OF MINNESOTA AND BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S MOST AREAS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

VERY DRY AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STACKED LOW OF EASTERN CANADA
AND UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED
FIRE RISK THURSDAY...BUT LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE NAM
AND GFS ARE SHOWING MIXING TO ABOVE 850 MB BY AFTERNOON...FORCING
DEW POINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH
GREEN VEGETATION YET TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MARKED MODIFICATION OF
DEW POINTS AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOWERED DEW POINTS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
FROM RAW MODEL GUIDANCE.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
EJECTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LARGELY PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY
MAKE IT NORTH FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN COME FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL VARIABILITY WITH THIS
FEATURE. 12Z ECMWF NOW SPLITS THE ENERGY INTO A NORTHERN WAVE
TAKING IT INTO CANADA...AND A SOUTHERN WAVE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CONTINUING THE SOAKING TREND IN TEXAS AND THE
GULF COAST. GFS HAS TAKEN THE LOOK OF THE 00Z ECMWF WITH A CLOSED
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS MN WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A MUCH BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN. CONTINUED WITH 30-40 PERCENT POPS...AND WILL AWAIT
FURTHER TRENDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUICK BURSTS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE ARE NOT ALL THAT
DISSIMILAR FROM POP-UP SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE SUMMER TIME...ONLY WE
ARE ABOUT 40 DEGREES COLDER AND WE ARE GETTING SNOW FLAKES...SNOW
GRAINS AND ICE PELLETS INSTEAD OF RAIN DROPS. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS NIGHT APPROACHES AND WE LOSE SOLAR
HEATING. MVFR-VFR CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY TOMOROW.
TOMORROW WILL FEATURE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE.

KMSP...

STILL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE
AIRPORT EARLY THIS EVENING...THE GOOD NEWS IS THESE SHOWERS ARE
BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME AND THEY ARE ALSO LOSING SOME
OF THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY ARE LOSING THEIR ENERGY SOURCE...THE
SUN. BRIEF PERIOD OF VIS RESTRICTION BELOW 1-2 MILES IS STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE NEXT 60-90 MINUTES...IF THE AIRPORT
GETS RIGHT UNDER ONE OF THESE SHOWERS...BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
COVERAGE...WE`D PUT THE CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING AT ABOUT 15-20%.
MUCH LESS WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE TOMORROW. STILL
HAVE THE GUSTY WINDS TO DEAL WITH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS E-NE 5-10 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. LOWER HUMIDITY TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT
AND STRONG GRADIENT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT OVER THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE 72 HOUR Q3 ACCUMULATION
SHOWS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAVE SEEN
A GOOD 0.75 INCH TO 1 INCH PLUS OF PRECIPITATION. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS NEARLY NON EXISTENT THERE FOR THE SHORT TERM. FIRE
WEATHER WATCH COORDINATED FOR MUCH OF THE MINNESOTA AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ041>045-047>070-073>077-082>084-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF
FIRE WEATHER...DWE



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