Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KUNR 210424
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1024 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SCATTERED CUMULUS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS ARE MAINLY NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 25 MPH.

DRY WEATHER AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. FOR
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
BY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

COMPLICATED AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST NWP MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE THE SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING UP AND BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS STARTING LATE THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW
WILL RETAIN LOW CHANCE POPS...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW CLOSELY AS A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK WILL
RESULT IN A WETTER SOLUTION FOR OUR CWA.

BEYOND SATURDAY...MOST NWP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE
CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...MCKEMY
AVIATION...10



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.