Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 051732
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1132 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

KLBX RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NCNTRL NEB
MOVING NORTH TOWARD SCNTRL SD. THIS FITS WELL WITH THE HRRR/RAP
WHICH HAS SOME SHOWERS ENTERING SCNTRL SD BEFORE LATE MRNG/EARLY
AFTN. BASED ON THIS...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THE REST
OF TODAY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND INCREASE THEM OVER SCNTRL. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE SW CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS
TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW AMPLE LL MOISTURE TO SPREAD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. MID/HIGH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SW CONUS UPPER LOW THIS MORNING...SLOWLY
LIFTING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT
SPREADING NORTHWARD THIS AFTN. FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL DEVELOP IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO
DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTN. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER/TS
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD TODAY. BEST COLLOCATION
OF DEEP ASCENT/FGEN/UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A LLJ PUSHES
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN TRICKY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
POTENTIALLY HAMPERING RISES...ESP ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE WEST COAST...WEAK
ENERGY WILL EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AROUND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
SATURDAY AS WESTERN TROF/CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
BOTH THE ECM AND GFS ARE WRAPPING COLDER AIR AROUND THE LOW INTO THE
CWA...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C. THIS COULD MEAN SOME PRECIP FALLS
AS SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
STORM.

TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE...IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDING INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN
EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...15


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