Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 052044
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
244 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WITH
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SWRLY FLOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A SECOND TROUGH
IS MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NW. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHRA/TSRA
MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE LBF CWA. THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AND CUT OFF TONIGHT AS THE FOUR CORNER LOW BEGINS ITS PHASE IN
TRANSITION. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT N/NE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT
AND NRN PLAIN WED/WED NIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BRING IS PRECIP TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED TSTORMS...WILL MOVE INTO SCNTRL
THIS EVENING...AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REST OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT OR WED MORNING. AS THE LOW SWINGS BY THE DAKOTA WED...COOLER
AIR WILL WRAP AROUND AND PUSH ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOUR TOMORROW. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THIS EVENT AS HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE WED NIGHT AS THE OPEN WAVE LIFTS NORTH INTO
ND/CAN. WHEN ITS ALL SAID AND DONE IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL SEE
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN...WITH PERHAPS SOME AREAS GETTING MORE
THAN THIS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER CALIFORNIA...WEAK ENERGY WILL EJECT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AROUND
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH THE ECM
AND GFS ARE WRAPPING COOLER AIR AROUND THE LOW INTO THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C.
THIS COULD MEAN SOME PRECIP FALLS AS SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS...BUT STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM.

TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE...IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDING INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN
EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15



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