Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 290846
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
246 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH SECONDARY TROF ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH 5-6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SECONDARY TROF...SEEING SECOND ROUND OF WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
IN THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY.

WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH DEEP MIXING...WILL BECOME BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN EXTREME CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR CWA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BEST ENERGY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ECM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL HINTING AT A BAND OF PRECIP SETTING UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
PRECIP MAY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS AND OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY
15Z. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ013-014-026-
     030>032-042>044-072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ046-047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ027-041.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012-025.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15





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