Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 282104
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
304 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LINGERING LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RIDGE OVER CA
AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 50S OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. SKIES WILL BECOME
MAINLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 60S OVER MUCH
OF THE BLACK HILLS. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL BRING SOME
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES TO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE PINE RIDGE
AND THE FAITH AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST WY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT IT COULD
HOLD OFF PASSING THROUGH UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. POST
FRONTAL -SHRA/-TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO UPPER FORCING AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY DUE TO CAA ALOFT...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FASTER MOVEMENT OF FRONT -TSRA CHANCES MAY TURN OUT TO BE QUITE LOW.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT THEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL
CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF EACH WAVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO PULL IN ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG TRANSIENT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES FOR CHANCES OF -SHRA/-TSRA AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE SPOTTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10


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