Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 010828
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH BY LATE MORNING.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT WITH 4-6MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES AND 900-850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KTS. WINDS/LOW
RH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WYOMING THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK LIFT INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING.

COOLER AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE BLACK
HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROF WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
FAR NORTHWEST SD VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REST OF
WESTERN SD THROUGH MID MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15





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