Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KUNR 281723
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1123 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LINGERING LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RIDGE OVER
CA AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR LINGERING CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN SD AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. PATCHY FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS HOUR WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE FOG AND MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS
THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME 50S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS TEXAS SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST AS RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
NORTHERN STREAM TROF IS NEARLY OUT OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
SKIES CLEARING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED SOUTH CENTRAL SD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES ARE LIKELY HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG
IN A FEW PLACES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING OFF A
BIT WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING...IN THE 30S. SOME 40S STILL HANGING
ON WHERE CLOUD COVER IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE DAKOTAS. ANY PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAR
WESTERN SD BY MID DAY...WHILE WINDS SHOULD STAY NORTHERLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TURN
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO MINNESOTA...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
70S...WITH 60S IN THE BLACK HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY...FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD SHOWN. IT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
POST FRONTAL -SHRA/-TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE AS UPPER FORCING SLIPS
BY...BUT GIVEN FASTER MOVEMENT OF FRONT...-TSRA CHANCES MAY TURN
OUT TO BE QUITE LOW.

FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT
THIS POINT...BUT THEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF EACH WAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO PULL IN ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG TRANSIENT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FOR
CHANCES OF -SHRA/-TSRA AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR MISS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE DURING
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.