Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 230327
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
927 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENT WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA...THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS.
TEMPERATURES AT 20Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE MID 60S IN NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE RATHER MILD AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SURFACE CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
DECENT SHEAR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
FRIDAY WITH 700MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NEB AND INVERTED SFC TROF
EXTENDING NWD INTO NERN WY/WRN SD. MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH ENOUGH MUCAPE FOR SOME TSTMS FROM
THE BLKHLS SOUTH AND EAST. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PCPN
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...BUT GFS/GEM/ECMWF
TRENDING TOWARDS STRONG UPPER TROF DIGGING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW
SPLITS...WITH LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKER
NORTHERN STREAM TROF SLIDING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A GOOD PCPN POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE BLACK HILLS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 926 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFT 20Z ON
THURSDAY AFTN...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LCL MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...10



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