Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 010809
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
209 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF SCNTRL SD EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO WRN SD. THIS IS BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES TO THE CWFA. NEXT UPPER TROF IS PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW.

TODAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S ON
THE PLAINS. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS INTO CNTRL/ERN
SD.

SATURDAY...UPPER TROF AXIS WORKS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WITH SFC
TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. THERMAL RIDGE ALONG WITH
DRY W/SW LO LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
80S...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLKHLS. COULD SEE SOME AFTN TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF ACROSS CNTRL SD WHERE MLCAPE UP TO
1000J/KG WILL EXIST. MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE
THAN A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL BRING
NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG DISTURBANCE EJECTING
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WED/THU WHICH WOULD BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE


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