Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 281537
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1037 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

QUICK UPDATE AS LAST OF THE SPRINKLES MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AND SKIES
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

POST-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...BUT IS RATHER SCANT SO HAVE REDUCED POPS TO 20/30 PERCENT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AS WELL...WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER BASICALLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER THIS MORNINGS CLOUD COVER FOR SOME
AREAS...EXPECT GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...HAVE DECREASED LOWS A FEW MORE
DEGREES. THE JAMES VALLEY WILL SEE TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. BY
THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL BE TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR SOME
LOCATIONS WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

MODELS HAVE COME BACK INTO AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER TROUGH THU NIGHT
BRINGING ACROSS SOME LIGHT PRECIP...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EVEN AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWING
THROUGH TOWARD SUNDAY. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE FEED THE
GFS COULD BE THE MORE CORRECT SOLUTION WITH JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TEMPS WILL FALL ONLY SLIGHTLY INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING TAKING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS
AND PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL SITES BY 15Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





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