Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 270231
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
831 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
GIVEN REPORTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS OF LITTLE
ACCUMULATION...WYDOT WEBCAM OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR
TRENDS...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN FORCING AND PRECIP MOVING TO
THE EAST. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...FOG IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. BUT THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS AND SATELLITE SHOW THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
STRATUS MAY REMAIN LONGER AND REDUCE THE CHANCE OF FOG. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A COOL WET END TO THE WEEKEND.
LARGE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION PROVIDING OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEPING 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2-3C. THIS COMBINED WITH AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND AREAS OF RAIN HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW AND OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX CONTINUES
TO FALL ACROSS THE RED LODGE AND BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AVERAGE SNOWFALL REPORT HAS BEEN AROUND 2 INCHES FOR
THE RED LODGE AREA THROUGH EARLY LATE MORNING. WEB CAMS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWING SNOW CONTINUING BUT SURFACES REMAIN JUST WET AND
GRASSY AREAS HAVE MOSTLY MELTED THROUGHOUT THE ROSCOE AREA. RADAR
SHOWING THE HEAVIER RAIN IS NOW CONCENTRATED OVER YELLOWSTONE AND
BIG HORN COUNTIES WITH MORE SCATTERED AREAS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONGEST AREA OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY OVER OUR
CENTRAL AREAS AND THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO SHIFT EAST
AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS EAST OF BILLINGS WITH HIGH
CHANCES FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LIKELY POPS CONTAINED FROM
CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR EAST TONIGHT BUT SOME CLEARING AND/OR BREAKS
WILL BE LIKELY ELSEWHERE...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE RECENT
RAIN/SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ADDED
THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE FAR EAST.

MODELS SHIFT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OUT OF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING BUT WE WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA
THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY. HOWEVER..THERE WILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS
CAN BE CANCELLED BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MONTANA BUT TROUGHINESS AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

SEVERAL RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON....MAINLY CENTERED AROUND COOLER TEMPS FOR MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD OF RIDGING CONTINUES TO
SHORTEN...WITH A PACIFIC TROF BEGINNING TO ENTER THE REGION AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND
MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY
ON TIMING AND FORECAST QPF. EC LEANS TOWARD ALMOST ZONAL FLOW TO
FOLLOW THE WAVE...AND A BROAD PACIFIC TROF DEVELOP INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS SHORTWAVE RIDGING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A QUICK TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCOMING
LARGE PACIFIC TROF CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT INHERITED POPS AT THIS POINT...AS THERE
APPEARS TOO MUCH VARIABILITY TO MAKE USEFUL CHANGES. AS FOR
TEMPS...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE MOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT...THEY DO FAVOR
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. SO HAVE
STARTED TO TREND TEMPERATURES COOLER FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...WITH MID
60S BY SUNDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED RAINS WILL MAINLY IMPACT ROUTES EAST OF KBIL THE REST
OF TONIGHT. THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY DAYBREAK. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS
INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS OF FOG COULD BRING IN LOCALIZED
LIFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033/061 041/073 046/084 046/070 041/071 041/068 042/064
    60/B    00/U    01/U    13/T    31/B    12/T    33/W
LVM 028/061 033/072 042/076 041/065 034/068 035/063 038/060
    30/U    00/U    01/U    14/T    32/T    22/T    33/W
HDN 035/063 037/074 040/083 042/073 040/072 040/070 042/066
    61/B    00/U    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/B    22/W
MLS 035/059 039/071 044/081 043/074 043/072 042/071 043/066
    62/W    00/U    00/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    22/W
4BQ 038/058 036/068 041/080 043/075 042/071 041/071 042/066
    83/W    00/U    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/U    22/W
BHK 036/056 035/068 040/076 040/073 041/070 041/070 040/066
    94/W    00/U    00/U    02/T    21/U    11/U    22/W
SHR 033/057 033/069 038/079 040/073 038/068 037/067 042/064
    72/W    00/U    00/U    13/T    31/B    12/T    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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