Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 210752
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
352 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY
USHERING IN MUCH COOLER CONDTIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND ADVISROY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS...ESPECIALLY
THE GUSTS ARE TOUGH TODAY. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF
THE GROUND WILL BE 35 TO 40 KTS AND WE WILL HAVE SOME WEAK COLD
ADVECTION AND WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF MIXING. IT IS MARGINAL HOW
MANY GUSTS WE WILL HAVE IN THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 40
KNOTS/46 MPH AND ABOVE. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT WILL
BE IN THE OHIO COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORS WENT WITH A WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM
THROUGH 7 PM.

OTHERWISE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA THIS MORNING. SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE LARGE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH...A SURFACE TROUGH (OR WEAK
SECONDARY FRONT) WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. LIFT FROM LOW LEVEL JET AND A LITTLE
INSTABILITY...SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY. BUT THINK CHANCES SMALL ENOUGH THAT FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH (OR WEAK FRONT) SWINGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA.  COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THE  850MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -5C.  NAM CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  STILL TOO MANY DOUBTS TO GO ABOVE CHANCE POPS.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SATURDAY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN QUESTION. YESTERDAY THE GFS
HAD A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SPREADING SHOWERS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...NOW THE GFS HAS THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH
AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN IS SPREADING IN THE RAIN. AT THIS TIME UNTIL
THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER KEPT IT DRY. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. NONE
THE LESS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN
WARMING UP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR BUT BECOMING WINDY TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH. SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THEN MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE INTO THE WEEKEND.

CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN
THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL OCCUR. THE THREAT OF THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WITH SOME QUESTIONS
DID NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEED AT TIMES FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND THAT MAY MEAN
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE WEST
END BUT CONTINUED ON THE EAST END.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






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