Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 261949
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS SEVERE LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

FOR NOW THROUGH 7PM...
SUPERCELLS ARE BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE DRY LINE WHICH IS SPANNING
FROM NEAR DEL RIO...EAST OF JUNCTION...AND NORTH INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SE AND A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE SOUTH EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO BE ISOLATED TO THE DRY LINE ITSELF...WHICH WAS WELL
HANDLED IN THE 12Z NAM SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CU DEVELOPMENT
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS KERRVILLE AND THIS POINT NORTH AND EAST
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT AS THE DRYLINE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE MOIST MT AIR MASS RESULTING IN UNEVEN MIXING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND RESULTANT BULGING IN THE DRYLINE. IF ANY
PARCELS ARE ABLE TO LIFT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND TAP INTO THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS COULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP.
TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR CELLS IN THE BETTER
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT FARTHER DISPLACED FROM THE DRY LINE.

FOR 7PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND
WILL INTERACT WITH THE DRYLINE...WHICH MAY SLIGHTLY RECEDE THIS
EVENING. UPSCALE GROWTH TO A SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH SHOULD BE ROUGHLY WHERE IT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED...IF NOT 25 MILES OR SO FARTHER WEST AND BEGIN
TO PROPAGATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4AM...
THE INTENSE SQUALL LINE SHOULD BEGIN IMPACTING THE NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING THE AUSTIN METRO AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR 1AM WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DID NOTICE SOME HINTS AT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RELAXING JUST A BIT
SO HOPEFULLY THE WIND POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW THE
CURRENT THINKING. QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LARGER HAIL IN THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS OF THE
LINE. AS THE LINE CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION SOUTH AND EAST OF
AUSTIN BY 2 TO 4 AM...THE MATURE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
INTO A WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND LESS OF A HAIL THREAT.
WHILE THE MOVEMENT OF THE LINE SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK...RAIN RATES
SHOULD INCREASE AS THE LINE BEGINS TO INGEST MORE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND EAST OF THE I35
CORRIDOR WHERE MORE SATURATED SOILS ARE PRESENT FROM PREVIOUS
RAINS OVER THE LAST WEEK.

TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE EPISODE TODAY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHILE A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP DOWN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO THE
EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AND BY MID-DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THERE STILL EXISTS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER BUT GFS/EURO ARE BOTH NOT ADVERTISING MUCH OF
NOTE WITH THAT ACTIVITY.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
MONDAY AND RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND CLEAR OUT THE POP CHANCES.

TB3

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY FOR COOL
NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE
REACHING THE COASTAL PLAINS. BOTH GFS AND ECM CONCUR WITH THIS
SOLUTION. THIS WILL RE-INFORCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES TO THE EAST. THIS TRANSLATE TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE FOR THE EVENING PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

OB17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  85  59  72  51 /  70  30  20  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  83  58  72  49 /  70  30  20  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  84  59  73  50 /  60  30  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  83  56  70  49 /  70  30  30  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  87  60  76  51 /  10   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  83  57  70  49 /  70  30  30  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             63  85  59  74  49 /  40  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  83  60  72  50 /  70  30  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  82  61  72  50 /  60  50  20  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  85  60  73  51 /  50  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           67  84  62  74  51 /  40  30  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03/17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30


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