Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 061912
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM BUT IT DOES BREAK DOWN WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... EVEN WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION... EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA BUT WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TODAY AND IT WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE A BIT THU ACROSS
THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS SUBDUED.
AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE
MAIN LOW CENTER CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BY 18Z THU IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z FRI TO JUST OFF
THE SC COAST JUST SE OF MYRTLE BEACH. GA STAYS ON THE CLEAN SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD NOT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED FROM THIS IN THE
SHORT TERM.

01


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. STILL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN A BIT SCATTERED WITH RESPECT TO THIS
SYSTEM...BUT ALL ARE POINTING TO SOME DEGREE OF DEEPENING AS THE LOW
DRIFTS NORTH ALONG OR JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. MAY SEE ENOUGH
MOISTURE PUSHED INTO THE FAR EAST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRAGGING A
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WITH WEAKENING UPPER RIDGING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER DYNAMICS
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRY AIR WE SEE IN THE WAKE OF THE
ATLANTIC SYSTEM SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

20

&&


AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE STATE
BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL ARE
OUT OF THE SE BUT WILL TURN TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THU. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  84  58  84 /   0   0   5  20
ATLANTA         60  84  61  84 /   0   5   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     53  80  55  81 /   0  20   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    56  84  56  85 /   0   5   0   5
COLUMBUS        58  86  57  88 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     59  82  59  83 /   0   5   0  20
MACON           57  85  57  87 /   0   0   0  10
ROME            56  85  56  86 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  55  84  57  85 /   0   5   0  10
VIDALIA         61  83  62  84 /   5  10  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...01



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