Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 041718
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1018 AM MST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND
TUESDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. INCREASING WINDS AND CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CONFINE MORNING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO THE EASTERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
OBS/TRENDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME CLEARING
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS OF THIS WRITING. IF THE CURRENT
TREND CONTINUES...WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NARROW THE TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER
FOR TODAY. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM MST MON MAY 4 2015/

SATELITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TODAY, AS INSTABILITY
AND LIFT INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE ARE FORECAST, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM AND IN YAVAPAI COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY DIMINISH ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA. LONGER TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT, THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC CIGS 3-5KFT AGL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. -SHRA AND -TSRA TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
SCATTERED MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40KT POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE OUTFLOW WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TM
AVIATION....DL


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