Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 281430
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING HIGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS COUPLED WITH THE DISSIPATION OF
A FRONT WILL SPREAD THE STRONG AND GUSTY TRADES TO AND AROUND THE
BIG ISLAND TODAY. THE TRADES WILL EASE OFF SOME ON THURSDAY TO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. UNDER THIS
TRADE WIND REGIME...SHOWERS WILL BE FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS OF ALL ISLANDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS DRIFTING DOWNWIND INTO THE LEEWARD AREAS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. LEEWARD BIG ISLAND WILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT THAT GAVE MAUI A GOOD BIT OF A SOAKING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOVE BACK WEST DURING THE EVENING WITH
OAHU TAKING THE BRUNT OF IT. THE RAIN GAGE AT MANOA OAHU PICKED UP
2.14 INCHES IN A SIX HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 2 AM HST. ABOUT ANOTHER
INCH HAS SINCE FALLEN THERE. OAHU FOREST RESERVE WAS NEXT WITH 1.94
INCHES. EVEN THE TYPICALLY DRY WAIANAE COAST PICKED UP A FEW RAIN
DROPS. PLEASE REFER TO HAWAII RAINFALL SUMMARY FOR MORE INFO.

THE SHOWERS HAVE BECOME A BIT LESS ACROSS MAUI COUNTY IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD OVER TO OAHU LATER THIS
MORNING. WE SHOULD BE IN A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND RAINFALL PATTERN
BY TONIGHT...WHERE SHOWERS INCREASES DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS...BECOMING ISOLATED BY MID OR LATE MORNING. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF WET TRADES IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEN A BAND OF
SHOWERS...PERHAPS REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT...MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH
A FEW DRIFTING INTO THE LEEWARD COMMUNITIES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

THE DEMISE OF THE OLD FRONT ALLOWS THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO
SPREAD TO THE REMAINING AREA OF THE STATE WHICH IS THE BIG ISLAND
AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. THE STRONGEST TRADES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SOURCE OF THE STRONG TRADES...
A 1035 MB HIGH...PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. WE WILL BE KEEPING A
CLOSE WATCH IF CONDITIONS WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. AS OF NOW...THE
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO FAVOR DOWNSLOPE.

THE TRADES WILL DROP OFF A NOTCH OR TWO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PULLS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MODERATE TO LOCALLY TRADES ARE ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL BE LINGERING AROUND THE ISLANDS
THAT MAY HELP ENHANCE SOME OF THE TRADE SHOWERS.


&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP STRONG NE TRADE
WINDS GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED
FRONT WILL KEEP ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY N
THRU E SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ISLANDS THROUGH MID
MORNING. OCCASIONALLY MVFR CIGS AND SHRA WILL AFFECT PHLI AND
PHMK...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT PHNY THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FROM KAUAI
THROUGH MAUI...WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND TO THE S
THRU W OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM KAUAI THRU MAUI...AND THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.



&&

.MARINE...
THE BUOY IN HILO BAY HAD A SIGNIFICANT RISE OVERNIGHT DUE MOSTLY TO
THE NORTH SWELL WITH A READING OF NEAR 8 FEET 12 SECONDS. THIS GOOD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH FACING SIDE OF
THE BIG ISLAND. THE ADVISORY IS GOOD TO 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHER WINDWARD BUOYS ARE SHOWING WAVE HEIGHTS OF BETWEEN 9 AND 13
FEET THIS HOUR. THIS NORTH SWELL WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY
LATER TODAY...SO THE ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS WILL BE LOWERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ADVISORY FOR
THE EAST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS NORTH SWELL MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME ELEVATED WAVE ACTION IN BOTH
KAHULUI AND HILO BAY TODAY.

ALSO...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL
STARTING AT 6 PM HST TONIGHT...LASTING TO 6 AM HST THURSDAY WHERE
THE STRONGEST POINT OF THE HIGH STARTS TO PASS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
THE DAY CREW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER TO GO TO A GALE WARNING OR NOT
LATER TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ COVER ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS.
THE SCA IS IN EFFECT TO UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY. WE WILL START
SCALING BACK THE SCA AS THE TRADES STARTS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF
NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

GALE WATCH FOR THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL FROM 6 PM HST THIS EVENING TO
6 AM HST THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS UNTIL 6 AM
HST THURSDAY.



&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...JELSEMA






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