Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 250307
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO. EXPECT
LINE TO THE NORTHWEST TO POSSIBLY CLIP HOUSTON COUNTY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS. THE GREATER IMPACT MAY BE FROM THE CLUSTER OF
SUPERCELLS SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EAST
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.

BASED ON AVAILABLE SOUNDINGS...THINK WILL SEE CELLS WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
HAS THEY TRACK EAST AND ENCOUNTER GREATER INHIBITION. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSION FROM
SPC WHICH SHOW WESTERN AREAS WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE...BUT MARGINAL
EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAIN OVERNIGHT. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT NOT THINKING WIDESPREAD. A FEW REPORTS
OF WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SUPERCELLS IF THEY CAN MAINTAIN THEMSELVES INTO OUR AREA...WITH
GREATER CHANCES OVER WESTERN ZONES. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED COASTAL COUNTY SHOWERS MUST LIKELY FORMING UNDER WEAK
MID-LEVEL CAPPING...MAINTAINING THEIR INTEGRITY WITHIN THIS EXTREMELY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE ONE ROGUE SUPERCELL NORTH OF KUTS TONIGHT
QUICKLY PETERED OUT AS IT HEADED NORTHEAST OUT OF THEIR TERMINAL
AIR SPACE. A SOMEWHAT TRICKY FORECAST THAT WAS HANDLED IN MORE OF
A BROADBRUSH MANNER DUE TO THE LACK OF RETURN CONVECTION ONSET/
TIMING. BACKGROUND WINDS ARE VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SUPPORT A
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY DEVELOPING STRONG CELL TO ROTATE...BUT
MAIN THREATS FROM ANY S/W DISTURBANCE PASSAGE WOULD BE DOWNBURST
WINDS WITH THE SECONDARY TORNADO THREAT. HIGHER REZ SHORT TERM
MODELING HAS A RETURN SWATH OF PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT SE TEXAS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LOWER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE
AND TIMING HAS JUST VCSH IN PLACE. TEMPO30 THUNDER IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ACROSS MORE SOUTHERN HUBS BUT...IF RADAR SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT
WEST OR SOUTHERN TEXAS ACTIVITY FLARING UP AND MOVING TOWARDS THE
REGION...MAY NEED TO DOWNGRADE THIS TO JUST VC BY THE 06Z PACKAGE
TIME. OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY PERIODS OF IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ONCE
AGAIN...WITH A THICKER HAZE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. OTHER THAN A PASSING POCKET OF EARLY SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION LOWERING CATS DOWN TO MVFR...EXPECT A MORE SOUTHWEST
WIND WITH GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER ACTIVE...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE HIGH RES MODELS REGARDING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL/EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT STORMS FIRING
ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO CONTINUE INTO AT
LEAST PARTS OF SERN TX OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LITTLE OR NO CAPPING IN PLACE ACROSS A
BROAD WARM SECTOR OVER SERN TX. SHOWERS ALREADY TRYING TO GET
GOING AROUND CLL TO HUNTSVILLE. SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AREA-WIDE
/EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 50KT COMMON/...THUS ANY STORM WHICH CAN GET
ROOTED WILL HAVE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...HOWEVER EXPECT NRN/WRN
COUNTIES TO SEE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY NIGHT-
TIME HOURS WITH SLIGHTLY DELAYED START FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS EVOLVE. COULD SEE ONE OR MORE AREAS/LINES
OF STORMS WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY DROPPING SEWD OUT OF NRN TX AND
EWD OUT OF CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LINGERING THREAT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
MID MORNING SATURDAY BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA.
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE PRIMARY
THREATS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION EVOLVES. AT
THIS TIME...EXPECT HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED AS THE
STRONG FLOW ALOFT KEEPS STORMS MOVING. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY WATCH FOR BACKBUILDING.

CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS SATURDAY AFTN AS MORE
WLY LOW FLOW AND BREAKS IN CLOUD PUSH AFTN TEMPS TO NEAR 90F IN
SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...OVERALL EXPECT TOMORROW INTO SUNDAY TO SEE
LESS ACTIVITY. THAT CHANGES AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS
MAIN UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EJECT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER THIS LAST ROUND EARLY IN THE
WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY PLEASANT WEEK FOR SOUTHEAST
TX NEXT WEEK. 48

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 114 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE TAFS FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING. FOR THE MOST
PART HAVE TAKEN THE MENTION OF PCPN OUT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN
(SAVE FOR THE LBX WHERE THERE MIGHT BE SOME ISO DEVELOPMENT COM-
ING IN FROM THE SW). SHORT-TERM MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING FOR THE START OF THE NEXT BATCH OF STORMS TONIGHT AOA
06Z. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  88  68  87  68 /  60  30  10  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  87  70  88  71 /  60  50  10  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  79  72  79  72 /  40  60  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46



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